On Deciding and Decision-Making Lenses

Some different lenses for decision making

I am sure we have all seen this video:

Or this picture:

(Source: http://ondigitalmarketing.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/640px-Diffusionofideas.png)

And whilst it is tempting to jump at every shiny new development that is published in a research paper (being an innovator) or even that is being talked about in some online communities (early adopter), I feel it pertinent to instead be a little more measured in my uptake of certain things.

“Why”, you may ask?

Ultimately it comes down resources to a degree, you are often trading off between things (unfortunately the ever popular ‘morning routine’ can only be so long). I’d also argue that in some cases it is pertinent to wait understand second order consequences and effects.

It is with all of that said that I will share some of the lenses I use in my decision making personally. I don’t always use all of these lenses because they are not always applicable, they are also not perfect but considering them in your own decision making may be useful.  

Risk-Benefit Analysis

Most are probably familiar with this. But in short, what is the risk I am taking by doing this and what is the benefits of it. For example, what is the risk of taking a certain substance and what is the likely benefit. Risks may be things like physical harm or financial risks amongst other things and could well be unknown and perhaps intangible at times.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Related, but not identical to risk-benefit is the cost-benefit. This is about what it costs for the benefit that the intervention gives. It can at times be truly quantified for example $X/use but often is a little less finite. This cost, similar to the risk, is not always financial, it may also be time for example (an opportunity cost) or indeed not doing something else because it is not possible to be done concurrently).

What if I am Wrong in Acting now & What if I am Wrong in Waiting?

This may be best explained as the cost of being wrong as an early adopter vs the cost of being late as a later adopter. This is then a balance:

If one is an early adopter and is wrong, that is the intervention or action doesn’t work, what is the cost (again, more broad than just financial) of this and are you willing to bear it if this is the case.
VS
If one is wrong and the intervention or action does work but you waited, what has been lost?

Absence of Evidence is not Evidence of Absence

In short, because we don’t have evidence about the impact of something, doesn’t mean it has no impact. This goes both ways, in terms of positives and negatives, so weighting these decisions comes down to a bias often.
For example, no evidence a new supplement does harm doesn’t mean that it does no harm, and if your bias is safety and non-intervention, then you may avoid this.
Similarly, mechanistic evidence that a supplement may work but without outcome data (the benefits are then theoretical to this point), with the same bias, may mean you still avoid the supplement, especially in absence of safety data. Conversely a lack of evidence in a certain population and no evidence of risk, with a low cost may mean you utilise a certain intervention.

More on evidence, statistics and where we are headed as a society in that realm in a coming newsletter (subscribe now if you haven’t already).

What am I Optimising For?

Understanding this is a crucial part of decision making. In fact it’s the basis of this newsletter broadly (how to make health and performance decisions - especially when they aren’t aligned). This tracks closely with what is probably a more familiar concept, that of your “why”. The two aren’t always aligned but your why should inform most things and in turn help to understand what you SHOULD be optimising for.

In short, understanding what you are optimising for helps make many decisions. In a work sense if you are optimising for being a team player vs the ultimate performer as an individual, you may make a few decisions slightly differently (shades of grey here - not black and white). From a health vs performance standpoint there are times when the two are at odds with each other and knowing what you value more highly (even slightly) may help make the decision of whether to do you morning ice bath (spoiler alert: probably hurting long term performance).

If you understand these concepts, and the way I use them, then hopefully you can interpret my writing and other informational sources for yourself and better apply them to your own situation.

For more on decision making, I really enjoyed this book.